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Aetna Announces Exit Plans for 70% of ObamaCare Market

Aetna announced that it will walk away from more than two-thirds of the ObamaCare exchange markets it participated in this year, dropping from 778 counties to 242 counties next year. Aetna will maintain a presence in just four states, it says – Delaware, Iowa, Nebraska and Virginia – down from 15 states this year. Aetna covered about 838,000 people through the Obamacare exchange in its 15 states as of June 30.

Aetna, the third largest insurance company in the U.S. says the market’s financials are unworkable, pointing out that it has lost more than $430 million since January 2014 on its individual products. It’s not the only major player to walk away from the Obamacare exchanges.

“More than 40 payers of various sizes have similarly chosen to stop selling plans in one or more rating areas in the individual public exchanges over the 2015 and 2016 plan years,” CEO Mark Bertolini said in a statement. “As a strong supporter of public exchanges as a means to meet the needs of the uninsured, we regret having to make this decision.”

Aetna’s announcement comes on the heels of an announcement by Anthem that, in a reversal of expectations, it is now projecting mid-single digit losses on the individual plans it sells on the exchanges. Humana said it would dial back its participation on the exchanges from 15 states to 11 earlier this month. UnitedHealth Group plans to remain on “three or fewer exchange markets,” its chief executive, Stephen Hemsley, said on an earnings call in July. Cigna has said that it is losing money on the exchanges, but the insurer is planning to expand its marketplace presence to three new states in 2017.

Like other insurers, the company blamed its withdrawal on a pool of exchange participants that has turned out to be heavier users of their insurance plans than previously predicted. Insurers need healthy plan members to off set sick patients to balance the books.

The move also comes amid a fight between Aetna and the U.S. Justice Department over the government’s lawsuit attempting to block the company’s acquisition of insurer Humana. The government has said the deal violates anti-trust laws, but Aetna has said it will lower costs and improve choice.

One major issue is the risk pool – the balance of healthy and sick people who incur major medical costs. An analysis by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released last week showed that the per-month medical costs of members on the exchanges each month had barely budged between 2014 and 2015, suggesting that the risk pool was not getting worse.

Next year will be Obamacare’s fourth of providing coverage in the new markets. Aetna’s decision doesn’t affect people covered by the company this year, but when they look for coverage next year, they’ll need to pick a new insurer. The decision, which affects about 80 percent of Aetna’s customers in individual ACA exchange plans, raises the prospect that some consumers will only have one insurer to choose from when they buy 2017 coverage.

ObamaCare relies on privately run insurers to offer health plans that individuals can buy, often with government subsidies. About 11.1 million people were signed up for Obamacare plans at the end of March.  The workers’ compensation claims industry had believed that the availability of low cost insurance to those who were previously uninsured would reduce the filing of marginal industrial claims.

DWC Publishes Updated MTUS With Opioid Guidelines

The Office of Administrative Law has approved the DWC final version of the Medical Treatment Utilization Schedule (MTUS) regulations that updates the Chronic Pain Medical Treatment Guidelines and adopts Opioids Treatment Guidelines.

Following national reports of opioid misuse, DWC proposed issuing guidelines and began the process with a forum for public comment in 2014. The guidelines that have been added to the MTUS provide best practices in appropriately treating injured workers while also enhancing safety in using these medications to manage pain.

“We welcome this update and addition to the MTUS. The information in these Guidelines should aid in the provision of safer and more effective care for California’s injured workers,” said DWC Executive Medical Director Dr. Raymond Meister. The changes to the MTUS Chronic Pain Medical Treatment Guidelines are set forth in section 9792.24.2, the Opioids Treatment Guidelines are set forth in section 9792.24.4, and the clarifying changes to the meaning of chronic pain are set forth in section 9792.23(b)(1) of the California Code of Regulations. The MTUS regulations went into effect on July 28, 2016 and will apply to any treatment requests made on or after July 29, 2016.

Christine Baker, Director of the Department of Industrial Relations, said, “These guidelines are an important step toward improving appropriate and safe care for workers.”

DWC Acting Administrative Director George Parisotto said, “DWC will move forward shortly to initiate the process to update all of the current MTUS chapters. This process will include new chapters for chronic pain and opioids. Regardless, the new Chronic Pain Medical Treatment Guidelines and Opioids Treatment Guidelines should be consulted and relied upon when making treatment requests and determining the medical necessity of such requests.”

As a result of this regulatory process, claims administrators now have more clearly articulated guidance on when to approve, or send a request for opioid prescription medication to UR for a more comprehensive review. And UR and the IMR reviewers have much better guidance on how to make decisions.

For example, the regulations have precise requirements for prescribing opioids for “sub-acute” pain which is defined as pain beyond one month following an injury. The physician should “screen for risk using validated tools” and “administer a baseline urine drug test (UDT) in the office toward the beginning of the subacute period,” And this section concludes that “a history of opioid use disorder or substance use disorder is a relative contraindication to continued opioid use during the subacute phase.”

The Executive Summary of the new Opioid guideline is 135 pages in length, and it is not a trivial task to understand the nuances of what has now become a more rigorous set of limits on unfettered prescribing of addictive pain medication. On this topic, the new regulation may be a game changer on the administration of medical care for pain patients.

Yates Memo Leads to Corporate Healthcare Executive Convictions

On September 9, 2015, Deputy U.S. Attorney General Sally Yates issued a memo entitled “Individual Accountability for Corporate Wrongdoing” to all of the Department of Justice’s prosecutors and civil litigators.

Known now simply as the Yates Memo, this directive signaled a new priority in the DOJ’s pursuit of corporate wrongdoing – a priority of pursuing, punishing and deterring individual wrongdoers in addition to their corporate employers.

“Fighting corporate fraud and other misconduct is a top priority of the U.S. Department of Justice. … One of the most effective ways to combat corporate misconduct is by seeking accountability from the individuals who perpetrated the wrongdoing.” With these simple, straightforward words by Yates, health care executives and administrators were put on notice that the DOJ will continue to leverage and coordinate its extensive resources in order to identify and pursue individuals who may be responsible for corporate wrongdoing.

And now nearly a year later, some corporate executives have learned of the Yates Memo, and the equivalent federal policies that preceded it, the hard way.

On Oct. 25, 2007, more than 200 agents from the FBI and other federal and state agencies raided WellCare’s headquarters and began a six-year investigation into the handling of state and federal money meant for behavioral care for the poor.

Investigators said that by law, WellCare was required to spend 80 percent of the money it received from the state of Florida for mental health services directly on patients. Twenty percent could go to administrative costs and profits. If less than 80 percent of the money was spent on care, it was to be returned to the state.

Authorities said WellCare funneled millions of dollars to a subsidiary, disguising expenditures to avoid returning unused money to the tune of $40 million. A whistle-blower’s lawsuit put the figure at $400 million to $600 million.

In May 2009, WellCare agreed to pay $80 million to avoid conviction on a charge of conspiracy to defraud the Florida Medicaid program and the Florida Healthy Kids Corp., a program for low-income children. The same month, the company paid $10 million to settle a lawsuit from the Securities and Exchange Commission and was forced to restate several years of income downward as a result of the fraud. In June 2010, the company agreed to pay $137.5 million to the U.S. Department of Justice and other federal agencies to settle civil lawsuits.

But the federal effort went way beyond just the corporate identity. WellCare executives were ultimately indicted on charges of conspiracy to commit Medicaid fraud and making false statements. And a federal appeals court just upheld the convictions of four health care executives found guilty.

A 124-page opinion issued this month by a 11th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals panel affirmed their convictions and found “overwhelming evidence” that the WellCare executives participated in a scheme to file false Medicaid expense reports.

Convicted were former WellCare CEO Todd Farha; former Chief Financial Officer Paul Behrens; William Kale, vice president of a subsidiary and former WellCare vice president Peter Clay.

The court found that the defendants overstated the amounts spent on Medicaid services on invoices, which allowed the company to keep millions of dollars in tax-subsidized funds that should have been refunded. The court rejected the defendants’ argument that their actions were simple routine contractual and regulatory disagreements.

The advice for the non-convicted corporate executives that orchestrate schemes of health care fraud is simply this. Read the Yates Memo !

Employer’s Failure to Provide DWC-1 Prevents Carriers’ Laches Defense

Ng Kwok was employed as a restaurant manager and waiter by Nu Square Corporation, doing business as Har Lam Kee Restaurant. The owner of the restaurant was King Tak Cheung. Mr. Cheung is the older brother of Kwok’s wife, Yuk Lin Cheung.

On the morning of January 10, 2005, rain was coming into the restaurant dining area. Kwok went out to the backyard area with a ladder to inspect the leak. A few minutes later, Kwok was found lying on the ground unconscious with the ladder next to him. Kwok sustained a brain hemorrhage and was and continues to be paralyzed from the shoulders down. Since the accident, Kwok receives 24-hour medical care.

Ms. Cheung notified Mr. Cheung of Kwok’s accident by way of a phone call the day after it occurred. Mr. Cheung was then in Hong Kong for treatment of an illness.

Ms. Cheung, Kwok’s wife, filed a workers’ compensation claim for Kwok in July 2012, more than seven years after the accident. This came about because Ms. Cheung heard a radio program about workers’ compensation cases and began inquiring with attorneys.

The restaurant was insured for workers’ compensation by Farmers. Kwok’s claim first came to the attention of Farmers in July 2012. Farmers tried to verify coverage but it was difficult to verify the dates of coverage because it was a number of years since the date of injury. Coverage was ultimately confirmed through the Workers’ Compensation Insurance Rating Bureau.

Farmers investigated the claim to determine the owner of the business and the owner of the building. However, only limited information was obtained through the business owner and the owner of the building. The cause of the fall was unknown because no one actually witnessed the fall.

A copy of the application and a DWC-1 Employee’s Claim Form was served on Farmers on July 27, 2012. Farmers also confirmed that it signed a Notice Regarding Denial of Workers’ Compensation Benefits on behalf of Farmers dated March 21, 2013, and that Kwok’s claim was not denied within the 90-day period mandated in section 5402. Accordingly, Farmers agreed that section 5402 triggered the rebuttable presumption that the claim was compensable. However, Farmers did not treat Kwok’s claim as compensable.

The WCJ concluded that Kwok sustained a compensable injury and concluded that the statute of limitations did not bar Kwok’s claim. The WCJ did not address the issue of laches which was raised as an issue in the pre-trial conference statement. Farmers’ contention with respect to laches was that the “carrier was greatly prejudiced by the lengthy delay in filing an Application for Adjudication.”

A petition for reconsideration was denied. The Court of Appeal sustained the WCAB in the published case of Truck Insurance Exchange v WCAB.

Within one working day of receiving notice or knowledge of injury, the employer is required to provide to the employee a claim form and a notice of potential eligibility for workers’ compensation benefits. The WCJ concluded that in this case this “was apparently never done.” If an employer breaches this statutory duty, the limitations period is tolled for the period of time that the employee remains unaware of his rights. (Kaiser Foundation Hospitals v. Workers’ Comp. Appeals Bd. (1985) 39 Cal.3d 57, 60.)

Notice to or knowledge of a workplace injury on the part of the employer is deemed to be notice to or knowledge of the insurer. Since Farmers is deemed to have known of the injury the day after it occurred, Farmers cannot show delay in receiving notice of the claim, which is an essential element of laches

WCIRB Files Fourth Consecutive Premium Rate Decrease

The WCIRB Governing Committee voted to authorize the WCIRB to submit a January 1, 2017 Advisory Pure Premium Rate Filing to the California Insurance Commissioner.

The Filing will propose advisory pure premium rates that average $2.26 per $100 of payroll, which is 11.0% less than the corresponding industry average filed pure premium rate of $2.54 as of July 1, 2016, and 2.6% less than the average approved July 1, 2016 advisory pure premium rate of $2.32. This marks the fourth consecutive Filing that the WCIRB has advised a decrease in pure premium rates, totaling -18.6% when compared to the average of the approved January 1, 2015 advisory pure premium rates.

In his presentation to the Governing Committee, WCIRB Chief Actuary Dave Bellusci noted that the indicated January 1, 2017 average advisory pure premium rate, while only slightly below the July 1, 2016 average approved pure premium rate, is -7.5% from the average January 1, 2016 pure premium rate. Mr. Bellusci also identified some of the factors contributing to the reduced indicated pure premium rate:

1) Medical losses on 2014 and prior accident years continue to develop favorably
2) Medical claim costs on 2015 accidents are emerging at lower than projected levels
3) Indemnity claims are settling at quicker rates than in the recent past
4) Forecasts of future wage level growth in California have increased

Despite these positive trends, Mr. Bellusci acknowledged that post-SB 863 loss adjustment expenses (LAE) and indemnity claim frequency continue to emerge higher than projected, but these increases have been more than offset by the favorable medical loss trends.

The WCIRB will submit its January 1, 2017 Pure Premium Rate Filing to the California Department of Insurance (CDI) on or around August 19, 2016. The CDI will schedule a public hearing to consider the Filing and once the Notice of Proposed Action and Notice of Public Hearing is issued, the WCIRB will post a copy in the Publications and Filings section of the website.

For More Information please review the Governing Committee Meeting Presentation – August 10, 2016 and the Regulatory and Pure Premium Rate Filings

Excess Carrier May Sue Primary Carrier for Failure to Settle Within Policy Limit

John Franco was working on a film set when a special effects accident caused him to suffer serious injuries. Franco’s injuries included pelvic crush injuries, a broken hip, fractures to both femurs, crush injuries to both knees, broken tibias and fibulas, broken ribs, a punctured lung, and soft tissue injuries to his face.

His employer had two primary insurance policies with Fireman’s Fund Insurance Company, and an excess insurance policy with Ace American Insurance Company. The injured worker sued, Fireman’s Fund defended the case, and the case eventually settled with the participation of and contributions from both insurers.

Fireman’s Fund defended the Warner Brothers entities in the Francos’ lawsuit. The Francos made settlement demands within the limits of the Fireman’s Fund policies. According to Ace American’s complaints, the demands were reasonable and supported by substantial evidence, but Fireman’s Fund “failed and/or refused to pay those demands within [the insurance policies’] limits.” Ultimately the Francos settled their lawsuit – for an amount substantially in excess” of the limits of the Fireman’s Fund policies. According to Ace American, Fireman’s Fund “consented to the settlement and contributed to it”, and Ace American contributed the amounts in excess of the Fireman’s Fund policies’ limits. Following the settlement, the case was dismissed with prejudice.

Ace American then sued Fireman’s Fund for equitable subrogation, alleging that the injured worker initially offered to settle his case within the limits of the Fireman’s Fund policies, and that Fireman’s Fund unreasonably rejected those settlement offers. Ace American alleged that as a result, it was required to contribute to the eventual settlement, which exceeded the limits of the Fireman’s Fund policies.

Fireman’s Fund demurred, arguing that the rights of an excess insurer such as Ace American derive from the rights of the insured, Warner Brothers. As such, an excess insurer may only sue for equitable subrogation if there has been a judgment against the insured that exceeds the limits of the primary policy. Because the Franco lawsuit settled and there was no judgment against Warner Brothers, Fireman’s Fund argued, Ace American could not sue for equitable subrogation. The trial court sustained the demurrer without leave to amend and dismissed the case, and Ace American appealed.

On appeal the question presented is whether Ace American has stated viable causes of action for equitable subrogation and breach of the duty of good faith and fair dealing, or whether the lack of a judgment in the employment injury case bars Ace American’s claims. The court of appeal reversed the dismissal in the published case of Ace American Insurance v Firemans Fund.

There are conflicting decisions from different divisions of the Second District court of appeal on this issue. In Fortman, supra, 221 Cal.App.3d 1394, Division One held that an equitable subrogation action could proceed against a primary insurer that initially breached its duty to settle a case within policy limits, resulting in a settlement that exceeded policy limits. By contrast, in RLI, supra, 141 Cal.App.4th 75, Division Five held that an equitable subrogation action could not proceed under the same circumstances.

The question is whether Ace American has stated viable causes of action for equitable subrogation and breach of the duty of good faith and fair dealing, or whether the lack of a judgment in the employment injury case bars Ace American’s claims.

This division of the Second District Court of Appeal found that because Ace American, the excess insurer, alleged it was required to contribute to the settlement of the underlying case due to the primary insurer’s failure to reasonably settle the case within policy limits, the lack of an excess judgment against the insured in the underlying case does not bar an action for equitable subrogation and breach of the duty of good faith and fair dealing.

Researchers Partially Reverse Paralysis

Paraplegic patients recovered partial control and feeling in their limbs after training to use a variety of brain-machine interface technologies, according to new research published on in the journal “Scientific Reports” and reported by Reuters Health.

The researchers followed eight patients paralyzed by spinal cord injuries as they adapted to the use of the technologies, which convert brain activity into electric signals that power devices such as exoskeletons and robotic arms.  

Between January and December 2014, the patients used virtual reality scenarios and simulated tactile feedback exercises to train their minds.

“To our big surprise, what we noticed is that long-term training with brain-machine interfaces triggers a partial neurological recovery,” said Dr. Miguel Nicolelis, a professor of neuroscience and biomedical engineering at Duke University, according to a statement from Duke.

“What we didn’t expect and what we observed is that some of these patients regained voluntary control of muscles in the legs below the level of the lesion and regained sensitivity below the level of the spinal cord injury,” Nicolelis said.

The researchers believe that the training in effect rewired the circuitry in the brain, giving it new ways to communicate with parts of the injured body.

“We may actually have triggered a plastic reorganization in the cortex by re-inserting a representation of lower limbs and locomotion in the cortex,” Nicolelis said.

“These patients may have been able to transmit some of this information from the cortex through the spinal cord, through these very few nerves that may have survived the original trauma. It’s almost like we turned them on again,” Nicolelis said.  

“It is very encouraging,” Dr. Ron Frostig, a professor of neurobiology and behavior at the University of California, Irvine, said in an interview.

“It shows that not only can we train them to use their thinking to activate something to help them like a robotic arm, but now we can improve their situation even further.”

Three Popular Orthopedic Surgeries are Actually “Useless”

Before a drug can be marketed, it has to go through rigorous testing to show it is safe and effective. Surgery is different. The Food and Drug Administration does not regulate surgical procedures.

So what happens when an operation is subjected to and fails the ultimate test – a clinical trial in which patients are randomly assigned to have it or not?

Spinal fusion is an operation that welds together adjacent vertebrae to relieve back pain from worn-out discs. Unlike most operations, it actually was tested in four clinical trials. The conclusion: Surgery was no better than alternative nonsurgical treatments, like supervised exercise and therapy to help patients deal with their fear of back pain. In both groups, the pain usually diminished or went away.

The studies were completed by the early 2000s and should have been enough to greatly limit or stop the surgery, says Dr. Richard Deyo, professor of evidence-based medicine at the Oregon Health and Sciences University. But that did not happen,according to an article in the New York Times. Instead, spinal fusion rates increased – the clinical trials had little effect.

Spinal fusion rates continued to soar in the United States until 2012, shortly after Blue Cross of North Carolina said it would no longer pay and some other insurers followed suit. “It may be that financial disincentives accomplished something that scientific evidence alone didn’t,” Dr. Deyo said.

Other operations continue to be reimbursed, despite clinical trials that cast doubt on their effectiveness.

In 2009, the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine published results of separate clinical trials on a popular back operation, vertebroplasty, comparing it to a sham procedure. They found that there was no benefit – pain relief was the same in both groups. Yet it and a similar operation, Kyphoplasty, in which doctors inject a sort of cement into the spine to shore it up, continue to be performed.

Dr. David Kallmes of the Mayo Clinic, an author of the vertebroplasty paper, said he thought doctors continued to do the operations because insurers pay and because doctors remember their own patients who seemed better afterward.

The latest controversy – and the operation that arguably has been studied the most in randomized clinical trials – is surgery for a torn meniscus, a sliver of cartilage that acts as a shock absorber in the knee. It’s a condition that often afflicts middle-aged and older people, simply as a consequence of degeneration that can occur with age and often accompanying osteoarthritis. The result can be a painful, swollen knee. Sometimes the knee can feel as if it catches or locks. So why not do an operation to trim or repair the torn tissue?

About 400,000 middle-aged and older Americans a year have meniscus surgery. And here is where it gets interesting. Orthopedists wondered if the operation made sense because they realized there was not even a clear relationship between knee pain and meniscus tears. When they did M.R.I. scans on knees of middle-aged people, they often saw meniscus tears in people who had no pain. And those who said their knee hurt tended to have osteoarthritis, which could be the real reason for their pain.

Added to that complication, said Dr. Jeffrey N. Katz, a professor of medicine and orthopedic surgery at Harvard Medical School, is the fact that not everyone improves after the surgery. “It is not regarded as a slam-dunk,” he said. As a result, he said, many doctors have been genuinely uncertain about which is better – exercise and physical therapy or surgery. That, in fact, was what led Dr. Katz and his colleagues to conduct a clinical trial comparing surgery with physical therapy in middle-aged people with a torn meniscus and knee pain.

The result: The surgery offered little to most who had it. Other studies came to the same conclusion, and so did a meta-analysis published last year of nine clinical trials testing the surgery. Patients tended to report less pain – but patients reported less pain no matter what the treatment, even fake surgery.

Then came yet another study, published on July 20 in The British Medical Journal. It compared the operation to exercise in patients who did not have osteoarthritis but had knee pain and meniscus tears. Once again, the surgery offered no additional benefit.

An accompanying editorial came to a scathing conclusion: The surgery is “a highly questionable practice without supporting evidence of even moderate quality,” adding, “Good evidence has been widely ignored.”

CastlePoint Conservation and Liquidation Plan Hearing Set for September

In what the Insurance Journal called a “success” Bermuda-based CastlePoint Holdings, Ltd. held its initial public offering of 7,682,238 common shares on March 23, 2007. The Company sold 7,562,738 shares and existing shareholders sold 119,500 shares at $14.50 per share. The IPO raised approximately $111 million. The New York-based Tower Group Inc. entered into a “strategic relationship” with CastlePoint in 2006. It became the sole shareholder of its subsidiary CastlePoint Re in February after it invested $15 million in the Company. Tower also has an 8.6 percent stake in CastlePoint.

Tower was made up of 10 insurance companies domiciled in six states that operated on a largely consolidated financial basis through an intercompany reinsurance pooling arrangement. Tower wrote workers’ compensation business in California through Tower Insurance Company of New York, CastlePoint National Insurance Company, and Preserver Insurance Company.

Well things change.

The Tower Group’s troubles started emerging during 2013 when it announced that it had deficiencies of nearly $400 million in its aggregate policyholder loss reserves. That situation was compounded by accounting errors that resulted in the parent company, Tower Group withdrawing its previously filed consolidated financial statements for 2011 and 2012.

In September 2014, the Tower Group was acquired by ACP Re, a Bermuda reinsurer with ownership aligned with AmTrust Financial Services Inc. and National General Holdings Corp. While that acquisition substantially improved Tower’s situation by migrating policy and claims administration to more reliable data systems at AmTrust and National General, the volatility and deterioration of the pre-acquisition claims continued unabated through 2015.

By the end of 2015, the Tower Group reported additional loss reserve deficiencies well above $400 million.

During the past several weeks, the California Department of Insurance in close coordination with fellow regulators in Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Florida, and New York, formed a plan with the owners of ACP Re and other related parties to consolidate the entire Tower Group into a single company, CastlePoint National Insurance Co., a California domiciled insurer, so policyholders of the entire Tower Group of insurance companies could be protected in single legal proceedings here in California.

Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones announced at the end of July that CastlePoint National Insurance Company, the sole remaining insurance company member of the Tower Group, was placed into conservation by order of the San Francisco Superior Court to protect policyholders and injured workers covered under policies issued by CastlePoint and the other member companies of the Tower Group.

Immediately after being appointed Conservator of CastlePoint, the Commissioner filed a motion seeking approval of a Conservation & Liquidation Plan for CastlePoint to further protect policyholders by deconsolidating CastlePoint from the Tower Group and providing for transactions that will bring in more than $200 million in new value for the benefit of policyholders and claimants.

The hearing on the motion to approve the Plan is set for 9:30 a.m., on Tuesday, September 13, 2016, at the San Francisco Superior Court.

Global Pressure Urges Drug Pricing Based on Outcomes

Global pressure on health spending is forcing the $1 trillion-a-year pharmaceutical industry to look for new ways to price its products – charging based on how much they improve patients’ health, rather than how many pills or vials are sold.

And according to the article in Reuters Health, some experiments in pricing have already been made.

But shifting the overall industry to a new model requires improvements in data collection and a change in thinking, say drug pricing experts. “Eventually, we are going to get there,” said Kurt Kessler, managing principal at ZS Associates in Zurich, which advises companies on sales and marketing strategies. “But it is a long, tough slog because it’s difficult to get the right data and agree on what the right outcomes are to measure.”

In the past, governments and insurers made room in their budgets for new drugs by switching to cheap generics as patents expired on older drugs. But today generics already account for nearly nine out of every 10 prescriptions in key markets like the United States, and fewer big drugs are going off patent.

That leaves little headroom for pricey new medicines even as they come to market in growing numbers. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has already approved 16 new drugs this year.

Investors got a wake-up call on the issue last recently when $10 billion was lopped off the market value of Novo Nordisk as the world’s biggest diabetes firm warned of falling U.S. prices.

Pharmacy benefit managers administering U.S. health plans are pushing back hard by excluding some drugs deemed too expensive – including Novo’s – leading to a crunch in areas like diabetes, a disease that now accounts for 12 percent of global healthcare spending.

The Danish group has an unusually high exposure to the U.S. market, but it is not alone in signaling tough times ahead.

The chief executives of Novartis, Eli Lilly and GlaxoSmithKline have all warned recently that pricing will become increasingly challenging across the board.

Accounting for 40 percent of global drug sales, the fate of the U.S. market is front and center in the minds of drug company executives, some of whom privately admit to preparing for a “confrontational” period in relations with politicians.

Novartis CEO Joe Jimenez believes drugmakers must develop value-for-money pricing models, like the performance-based deal the Swiss drugmaker recently struck with two U.S. insurers for its new heart failure drug. Under that deal, payments for Novartis’ Entresto pill are to be calculated in future based on the proven reduction in the proportion of the insurers’ patients admitted to hospital for heart failure, not on the number of pills they consume.

The aim is a flexible pricing system that rebates healthcare providers when a drug doesn’t work as planned and charges more when it works well.

Europe is in the vanguard of such moves. Britain agreed an early performance-based deal for a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) blood cancer drug back in 2007 and Italy also uses patient data to pay for cancer drugs based on actual patient responses.

GSK CEO Andrew Witty sees this outcomes-based approach slowly becoming the norm in more disease areas and geographies. “Whoever wins the election in the U.S., and also in Europe, we will see those conversations play out over the next few years,” he told Reuters. “I am not particularly expecting anything dramatic in 2017. I would say it is worth keeping an eye open for evolution of change, probably in ’18 and ’19.”

The pharmaceutical industry’s European trade association is already discussing ways to shift to outcomes pricing, following price curbs in Germany that have caused some companies to pull products off the market, and effective rationing in Britain, where strict cost-effectiveness rules apply.

Authorities in Asia’s two biggest markets, China and Japan, are also intervening in new ways to cap runaway costs.